August 7, 2008

Another day, another take on the “mobile TV” supposed phenomenon. Sure, it’s a nascent marketplace, but like it or not, mobile video remains an area that content owners must track incessantly as a platform and advertising sales opportunity. Here are a few predictions and opinions bubbling around the punditsphere this week:

People are still ga-ga over Apple’s iPhone. Take this week’s assertion by Turner Investment Partners that the iPhone will essentially drive mobile connectivity for now on and estimate that the “worldwide market for mobile connectivity is likely to generate accelerating double-digit growth over the next five to 10 years.” In fact, TIP analysts predict Apple’s share of the smart-phone market will skyrocket from 3.7% in 2007 to 28% in 2009. So that means mobile video must be on the verge of mass adoption in the U.S., right? Uh, not necessarily, according to Third Screen Media founder/CEO Tom Burgess, who told JackMeyers Media Business Report that the iPhone’s popularity means little in terms of helping the U.S. catch up with the sophisticated multimedia features of mobile devices in Asian markets where many people use handsets as their main computer. “The mobile device is the primary data access or digital access device for those cultures,” he told JackMeyers. “So those cultures tend to be more advanced as far as eyeballs using their phones.” He basically big TV or PC screens ruling video in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Of course, the iPhone has become a multimedia juggernaut that goes well beyond video. Case in point: Comscore reported today that the iPhone remains the leading device to access online maps in the U.S. The bottom line is that if mobile video does end up taking off in the U.S., it’s looking like the iPhone is set to be the dominant player. Content owners may want to make sure they are ready with third-party deals that exploit the platform.

Meanwhile, as we continue our adventures in mobile video punditry, Multimedia Intelligence this week forecast that mobile TV has spurred a new category of advertising known as “Call to Action” advertising and that will reach $419mln in revenue by 2012. So what exactly is “Call to Action” advertising? For example, if you see an advertisement for the latest car, you would press the call to action button and an SMS text could be sent to your phone with the nearest dealership or a dealer could send you more information. Remember back in the 1990s when everyone thought interactive TV ads would first grace the set-top box? Yeah, we’re still waiting.

In any event, here are some other MI predictions:

• Total mobile TV and video advertising revenue, including "Call to Action" advertising, will exceed $1bln by 2012

• Regionally, Call to Action advertising will be driven by the North American and Asian markets. Asia tends to lead in driving new applications. North America tends to lead in driving advertising.

• Consumers are demanding more personalization and entertainment content on their mobile phones, driving mobile TV and video subscription revenue to almost $3.5bln in 2008. By 2012, mobile video and mobile TV will exceed $14bln.

• Mobile TV ARPUs are much higher in North America and Europe than Asia due to the lack of free-to-air alternatives.

• With the combination of a large wireless subscriber base and free-to-air alternatives, Asia has the vast majority of all mobile TV subscribers. By 2012, Asia will have two thirds of all mobile TV subscribers.