August 18, 2008

Game On: Cable Suits Up For Another Season

Football season is fast approaching, and this year features some notable pigskin changes in cable along with a pesky Achilles' heel and a key unknown. Perhaps most notable is Comcast's Fri launch of Big Ten Network following acrimonious discussions during much of '07. The net receives important carriage on expanded basic in conference states through the deal, and the MSO pleases area subs while maintaining the right to move the net to digital next spring in many markets. Big Ten has yet to ink key distribution deals with Charter, Mediacom or Time Warner Cable, but Pali analyst Richard Greenfield believes the lack of progress most stings the latter MSO. "The Big Ten situation puts Time Warner Cable in a tough spot," wrote Greenfield, noting brewing trouble in NYC with Verizon's FiOS launch and Univision's retrans demands. "While the BTN situation is not a key reason for our sell thesis on TWC, it certainly adds pressure to TWC's earnings growth in 2008/2009." Greenfield expressed concerns last year about Mediacom losing subs over the lack of carriage. Mediacom ended up gaining 2K basic subs in 1Q, it's 1st quarterly sub gain in 3 years, with CEO Rocco Commisso promising to hold firm on MCCC's stance. Big Ten Net is applying its own pressure to Time Warner and Mediacom, which respectively dominate OH and IA. The net features 3 of Ohio State's initial 4 football games, plus the annual Iowa-Iowa State tilt that evokes fervent state interest. Also of note: The mtn. sports network forged with DirecTV in Feb its 1st satellite distribution deal, and will hit the DBS op's lineup by Sept 1. On the NFL front, big cable continues to have an icy relationship with the popular league, and the satcasters and telcos are busy taking advantage of the situation. A cogent example (other than DirecTV's Sunday Ticket) is NFL Network Game Extra, a service available exclusively to Verizon video/broadband subs that provides live, online broadcasts of NFL Net's preseason and Thurs night games, plus segments from net shows such as "NFL Total Access" and fantasy football updates from NFL.com. Lastly, keep an eye this season on ESPN's "MNF" ratings. After averaging a 9.9/9.11mln in '06, the games slipped last season to an 8.6/8.28mln. What will this season hold? ESPN has some compelling games this year, including Eagles-Cowboys and Jets-Chargers.